Somehow, the Olympic Games are next month and with the majority of Olympic teams having been named, we decided to dig into the Team Event more.
The Team Event starts on the third day of the Olympics, which is the same day as the opening ceremony, on Friday 4th February.
The full event schedule, (per the latest update) is as follows (Local Time – UTC+8)
Friday 4th February
10:02 – 11:15 Team Event – Men Single Skating – Short Program
11:41 – 12:54 Team Event – Ice Dance – Rhythm Dance
13:22 – 14:55 Team Event – Pair Skating – Short Program
Sunday 6th February
9:37 – 10:50 Team Event – Women Single Skating – Short Program
11:57 – 12:36 Team Event – Men Single Skating – Free Skating
Monday 7th February
9:22 – 10:09 Team Event – Pair Skating – Free Skating
10:36 – 11:15 Team Event – Ice Dance – Free Dance
11:42 – 12:21 Team Event – Women Single Skating – Free Skating
Here we’ll be talking a bit more in depth about the Team Event; the countries that qualified, how we think the entrants should be split and some early guesses at the podium.
How points are calculated
The points are broken down into two seasons, the 2020-21 season & the 2021-22 season.
Points from the 2020-21 season are calculated from the 2021 World Championships, where the best score from each country is used.
For example from that season, Russia has 4387 points. Mikhail Kolyada earned 787 points for Russia from his fifth place finish, which was the highest placement of a Russian in the men’s event. Anna Shcherbakova, Mishina/Galliamov and Sinitsina/Katsalapov all earned the maximum of 1200 points respectively for their first place finishes.
Points from the 2021-22 season will be taken from the Grand Prix series and Final, and if necessary the Junior Grand Prix individual events only. However there are only 10 teams that are eligible for the event based on the Olympic berths.
What Nebelhorn Trophy 2021 meant
Nebelhorn Trophy not only secured the final Olympic spots in each discipline, but it also helped decide the 10 countries that will participate in the team event.
Anastasiia Shabotova (Ukraine) placed fifth in the women’s event which helped Ukraine reach the 3 out of 4 discipline requirement to be entered into the team event, with the additional athlete quota. They can use the quota to enter one pairs team for the team event only.
Georgian pairs team Karina Safina / Luka Berulava and ice dance team Maria Kazakova / Georgy Reviya, both placed third overall in their respective events and second in the Olympic qualifying. For the first time in history, Georgia will compete in all disciplines.
Ice dance siblings Natálie Taschlerová / Filip Taschler (Czech Republic) placed fifth overall but earned the final Olympic qualification spot and will join the team event.
Note: There is a rule that allows countries to replace up to two skaters in the team event, between the short program/rhythm dance and free program/dance. This will either be: both singles skaters, one single skater (woman or man) and either a pair or ice dance team, or both the pair and ice dance team, if the country has enough skaters qualified for the Olympics.
Qualified countries
ROC
Russia, who will be competing as the ‘Russian Olympic Committee’ has the deepest field in all disciplines coming into the Olympics. They also have the maximum amount of entries (3) in all disciplines. Whilst Russia hasn’t named heir Olympic team yet, and won’t until later this week, there are some obvious observations from the first half of the season.
Mikhail Kolyada and Mark Kondratiuk are almost definitely locked in to appear at the Olympics. The third spot is likely between Andrei Mozalev and Evgeni Semenenko, with an edge to Mozalev who finished third at Nationals and fourth at Europeans – one place higher than Semenenko at both competitions. Whoever does end up going, men should be one of the disciplines all countries use their replacement allowance on. Originally we had Kolyada as the skater to do the free skate however after his withdrawal from Europeans due to injury, he probably won’t be chosen.
The other event we think should be split is ice dance. Whether Victoria Sinitsina / Nikita Katsalapov will compete, still remains to be seen, as Katsalapov has had a lot of struggles with his back injury recently but if they’re chosen for the team event, it should only be for the rhythm dance. They’ve had solid results and one of the better patterns all season and a clean skate from them in the rhythm dance alone should give them a good lead. Alexandra Stepanova / Ivan Bukin are the obvious alternates with a respectable history and a great free dance.
Prediction: Men – Mark Kondratiuk & Andrei Mozalev, Women – Kamila Valieva, Pairs – Anastasia Mishina / Aleksandr Galliamov, Ice Dance – Victoria Sinitsina / Nikita Katsalapov & Alexandra Stepanova / Ivan Bukin
United States
Following U.S. Nationals, the federation announced the Olympic Team however it’s still early days in relation to the team event.
With the one day turn around between the men’s team event free skate and men’s individual event short program, it’s best to use one of the splits here. The U.S. being in prime medal contention means they can go with one of two options; Jason Brown or Vincent Zhou. Brown has a history of reliable short programs, and one of the best programs this season, so whilst we think he should be the choice for the short program, we also think the federation would want to choose the technical advantage in points that a clean Zhou would bring. However as Nathan Chen was still undecided on his programs for the Olympics, he might want to skate the short program and one of the other two will skate the free.
The second split event should either be pairs or ice dance and we’re predicting the latter. Hubbell/Donohue and Chock/Bates are two of the highest scoring ice dance teams right now and a reliable program from both team should help keep them in the medals.
Prediction: Men – Vincent Zhou & Nathan Chen, Women – Alysa Liu, Pairs – Alexa Knierim / Brandon Frazier, Ice Dance – Madison Hubbell / Zachary Donohue & Madison Chock / Evan Bates
Canada
Once again, splitting the men based on the schedule is the best choice. Here it might be a good idea to have Keegan Messing do the short program, and Roman Sadovsky the free skate, as Keegan is the statistically more reliable skater but his free skates have been a bit up and down this season.
Splitting the pairs event also seems like a given – in which both teams have had wildly inconsistent skates earlier in the season. Picking who does the short and who does the free is a bit of a toss up.
Whilst Canada have the ability to split the dance event, Gilles/Poirier are the obvious high-scoring favourites, so it makes the most sense for them to do both events.
Prediction: Men – Keegan Messing & Roman Sadovsky, Women – Madeline Schizas, Pairs – Kirsten Moore-Towers / Michael Marinaro & Vanessa James / Eric Radford, Ice Dance – Piper Gilles and Paul Poirier
Japan
Japan have the best shot of a team medal they’ve ever had. Whilst in prior Olympics their pairs and dance have been clearly weaker compared to their singles, pair team Miura / Kihara have been a bit of a revelation over the last year, quickly climbing to the podium in big events. Whilst their dance will still struggle against the big guns, the rest of the team should score well.
For maximum results, it would be in their best interest to have reigning World Record holder and two-time Olympic champion, Yuzuru Hanyu, do the short program, and reigning Olympic silver medalist, Shoma Uno, do the free. However, if Hanyu would rather preserve his energy for the individual event, Yuma Kagiyama is a worthy backup option.
Having Kaori Sakamoto compete the short program and Wakaba Higuchi the free skate seems so obvious at this point it doesn’t really require discussion.
Prediction: Men – Yuzuru Hanyu & Shoma Uno, Women – Kaori Sakamoto & Wakaba Higuchi, Pairs – Riku Miura / Ryuichi Kihara, Ice Dance – Misato Komatsubara / Tim Koleto
China
As the pairs category is the only discipline where China qualified more than one entry, this is the only one they’re eligible to split. As it’s a home Olympics having both of their top pairs compete the team event (if they make the second stage) does the best job at promoting the team. We think they should probably use Sui / Han for the short, and Peng / Jin for the free. Whilst Sui / Han tend to compete at a limited number of events, the combination of a home Olympics and the chance test out their scores prior to the individual event shouldn’t be passed up.
Prediction: Men – Boyang Jin, Women – Yi Zhu, Pairs – Wenjing Sui / Cong Han & Cheng Peng / Yang Jin , Ice Dance – Shiyue Wang / Xinyu Liu
Italy
Unable to qualify a women’s spot at Nebelhorn Trophy by just 1 point, Italy are able to use the additional athlete quota to compete in the team event. Lara Naki Gutmann was chosen to compete by the federation.
As Italy have 2 men they should split them, and (we think) use Daniel Grassl for the short and Matteo Rizzo for the free. Grassl has stronger short programs, and like he showed at Europeans, can compete a clean short program with a high result. Rizzo however, is great with comeback free skates and for the past couple of seasons has not had strong short program outings.
Rebecca Ghilardi / Filippo Ambrosini confirmed at Europeans that they will be taking part in the team event, so we assume will be splitting the event with Nicole Della Monica / Matteo Guarise. Della Monica / Guarise withdrew from Europeans due to a fall in training and wanted to focus on preparing for the Olympics. Using them in the short program could help earn enough points to keep Italy in the top 5.
Prediction: Men – Daniel Grassl & Matteo Rizzo, Women – Lara Naki Gutmann, Pairs – Nicole Della Monica / Matteo Guarise & Rebecca Ghilardi / Filippo Ambrosini, Ice Dance – Charlène Guignard / Marco Fabbri
Germany
Germany also receive one of the additional athlete quotas to use for men. Paul Fentz is the athlete that’s been proposed by the German federation however he’s yet to be approved to compete at the Olympics, (the decision should come this week.)
Minerva Fabienne Hase / Nolan Seegert are the strongest skaters in their respective discipline out of the four, but all skaters will need career best skates to advance to the free.
Confirmed: Women – Nicole Schott, Pairs – Minerva Fabienne Hase / Nolan Seegert, Ice Dance – Katharina Müller / Tim Dieck
Not confirmed by the German Olympic Committee: Men – Paul Fentz
Georgia
Georgia didn’t hold a National Championships to decide their team, and made their selections based on international results and online video submissions.
As of writing this, the federation hasn’t announced their women’s pick for the Games but based on her season Anastasiia Gubanova should be named. Another country which won’t be able to switch athletes but with the strong scores all disciplines, we think they’re an underdog to watch.
Prediction: Men – Morisi Kvitelashvili, Women – Anastasiia Gubanova, Pairs – Karina Safina / Luka Berulava, Ice dance – Maria Kazakova / Georgy Reviya
Czech Republic
The Czech Republic were the first country to name their Olympic team.
Michal Březina will be competing at his fourth Olympics and younger sister Eliška Březinová, will be competing at her first. Pairs team Jelizaveta Žuková / Martin Bidař and ice dancers Natálie Taschlerová / Filip Taschler will be making their Olympic debuts together. Bidař competed at the 2018 Olympics with his former partner.
Březina is the strongest scoring skater when at his best. At Europeans he didn’t have a great short program but did have a clean free once he took out the quad. Taschlerová / Taschler are also a strong team, who just placed 11th at Europeans.
Confirmed: Men – Michal Březina, Women – Eliška Březinová, Pairs – Jelizaveta Žuková / Martin Bidař, Ice dance – Natálie Taschlerová / Filip Taschler
Ukraine
Ivan Shmuratko and Oleksandra Nazarova / Maksym Nikitin both just competed at Europeans. Shmuratko had a stronger short than free which managed to keep him high enough to finish 12th overall and Nazarova / Nikitin once again had strong skates to finish 10th.
Anastasiia Shabotova, who withdrew from Europeans due to medical reasons, also has a triple axel in her arsenal.
Ukraine can also use the additional athlete quota for their pairs team.
Prediction: Men – Ivan Shmuratko, Women – Anastasiia Shabotova, Pairs: Sofiia Holichenko / Artem Darenskyi, Ice Dance – Oleksandra Nazarova / Maksym Nikitin
Scoring and Our Predictions
Skaters programs will be scored in the normal way, but that score will also receive a point placement. The Team Event is scored from 1-10, 1 being the lowest and 10 the highest.
Those points are then totalled together and the five countries with the highest points after the short program/rhythm dance, advance to the free skate/free dance.
Our predictions for the team event are:
🥇 ROC
🥈 USA
🥉 Japan
Don’t Count Out: Georgia, Italy
2 Replies to “2022 Olympic Team Event Predictions”
Interesting take! I didn’t know Ukraine was in the competition. Good to know! Has the ROC/Russian Figure Skating Olympic Team been announced yet? They are really thinking on this! It’s taking longer than usual to be officially announced.
They’re supposed to finalise their Team within the next few days, but it will mostly follow the results of Nationals and Europeans. The only debate at this point is really Semenenko vs Mozalev, as long as Kolyada’s injury isn’t serious.