Beijing 2022 Olympic Ice Dance Figure Skating – Predictions

The second individual event of the Olympics is next and we’re going to break down our predictions for Ice Dance. Traditionally Ice Dance tends to have the least movement from the status quo because without jump or throw elements scores follow a pretty stable trajectory. However, with a bit of a mix-up in the team event, things could be getting interesting in the medal hunt this weekend.

Before the team event, it seemed mostly set in stone that Papadakis / Cizeron and Sinitsina / Katsalapov would be battling it out for Olympic gold. The two teams are the only ones who’ve won the big titles this cycle, and haven’t faced off against each other since Euros 2020. Papadakis / Cizeron are looking to one-up their silver from 2018 and turn it into Gold, their rivals weren’t present in those Olympics due to injury but Katsalapov carries a bronze from 2014 with his previous partner. Papadakis / Cizeron are the only one of the big names that didn’t compete in the team event, which could put them at a disadvantage for not getting that final feedback on their programs, not to mention their last outing at French Nationals, while a resounding win, included Papadakis falling on the twizzles. But they obviously enter the competition as the favourites.

Due to errors in the team event, Sinitsina / Katsalapov lost both segments to American teams Hubbell / Donohue and Chock / Bates, putting a halt to their momentum and giving the Americans a boost. If they were to skate clean, the Russians should still have the advantage, however, there’s no telling what damage has been done to their standing in the judges’ eyes over the last week, not to mention Katsalapov’s ongoing back injury which has been the cause of many of their problems this season. Their loss to Chock / Bates came down to an extended lift deduction, so hopefully, they’ve taken on the Barbara Fusar-Poli method in practice and have timed it perfectly with a stopwatch.

Hubbell / Donohue and Chock / Bates often trade results back and forth but it will absolutely come down to production on the day. Hubbell / Donohue have the better skating skills, and the alterations to their Rhythm Dance in the last couple of months have certainly been a hit. The biggest danger for them could be their overhead Free Dance lift, that if Donohue extends too egregiously could be invalidated. What Chock / Bates lack in technical excellence is made up for on the score sheet with programs the judges and much of the audience rave about.

Also in the mix for our top five are Italians Guignard / Fabbri and ROC’s Stepanova / Bukin. Guignard / Fabbri are regarded by many as the best technicians in the discipline, but their lack of political sway often puts them in the shadows of their competitors. If they deliver on all of their levels it may be enough to carry them to a good result, but reaching that podium is highly unlikely. They are in good standing after beating World bronze medalists Gilles / Poirier in the team event though. Stepanova / Bukin only arrived in Beijing a couple of days ago, but have turned their year around drastically from the start of the season where they ended up first alternates for the Grand Prix Final. With Sinitsina / Katsalapov’s stock dropping it’s not impossible that the attention would move to their domestic rivals.

On the outside of everything, we have Gilles / Poirier. Sadly their momentum from the last season seems to have simmered, with programs that while they’re passionate about, have failed to ignite that same emotion in a lot of fans. We think a reprise of their Vincent Free Dance would have been a better move, as it was one of the most beloved programs in the last 4 years. Their technical levels have also been a little iffy, and they can’t afford that with the competition they’re up against.

Don’t count out: Gilles / Poirier